Whilst the market continues to soften, almost everyone agrees that Australia needs materially more housing, yet the latest data reveals a delivery system in which planning approvals, construction activity, finance and labour-market conditions are not moving in unison. The central policy question is no longer simply how many dwellings are approved, but how efficiently approved supply is converted into financed projects, construction starts and completed homes.
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The equation is remarkably simple: population growth creates households; households require homes; and where the number of homes does not keep pace with the number of households, the adjustment occurs through price. In the rental market, that price is rent.
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Whilst most commentators are focussed on what is happening in the housing market with regard to price, there seems to be little attention paid to the rental market. At a time when supply is sorely needed, those celebrating housing price declines may have missed the point that what we are witnessing at present is more of a tenure shift, than a supply led decline.
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Fifty-five years of data tell a consistent story: Australian house prices climb through almost everything — oil shocks, double-digit interest rates, tech boom and busts, banking collapses, pandemics — and the periods when they don't are shorter and shallower than most people expect.
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The latest population data has been released and whilst the eastern seaboard has started to return to more traditional levels of growth, it is far from being slow. There have however been some interesting changes that will flow through many parts of society; whether that is the requirement for additional housing, more healthcare, jobs or even retail.
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As Melbourne’s relative affordability widened compared with both Sydney and Brisbane, the financial rationale for interstate relocation has weakened. Selling property in Melbourne at a relative discount only to purchase into increasingly expensive markets has become less economically attractive for many households.
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