For decades, Australians have been encouraged to believe that the capital cities offer the ultimate combination of employment, prosperity and lifestyle. The implicit message has been simple: to get ahead, move to the city. But what if that assumption has become one of our most expensive economic habits?
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Get your October Market Snapshot right here. See what is lifting the economy, impacting housing, how one capital city compares to another.
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The market has split into two stories: price resilience remains strongest outside Sydney and Melbourne, while transaction volumes have weakened sharply across almost every capital city. The June quarter therefore looks less like a uniform price correction and more like a broad contraction in market liquidity.
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Whilst the market continues to soften, almost everyone agrees that Australia needs materially more housing, yet the latest data reveals a delivery system in which planning approvals, construction activity, finance and labour-market conditions are not moving in unison. The central policy question is no longer simply how many dwellings are approved, but how efficiently approved supply is converted into financed projects, construction starts and completed homes.
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The equation is remarkably simple: population growth creates households; households require homes; and where the number of homes does not keep pace with the number of households, the adjustment occurs through price. In the rental market, that price is rent.
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Whilst most commentators are focussed on what is happening in the housing market with regard to price, there seems to be little attention paid to the rental market. At a time when supply is sorely needed, those celebrating housing price declines may have missed the point that what we are witnessing at present is more of a tenure shift, than a supply led decline.
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